Dr. Saud Al-Sharafat
Founder and Director of the Shorufat Center for Globalization and Terrorism Studies
.This analysis reflects estimates based on open sources and reliable journalistic sources
Probabilities may change based on more accurate intelligence filtration or new, reliable information. It consists of five very concise and condensed sections, each requiring detailed research
:These sections are
Strategic background and regional alliance
Consistent reports (from open sources) indicate that Saif al-Adel, the de facto leader of al-Qaeda and resident in Iran, is leading a campaign of comprehensive coordination between al-Qaeda and Tehran, such as strengthening relations with the Houthis in Yemen to target Western interests in the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, including cooperation in maritime operations and direct in-person dialogue to facilitate this (Al-Najjar, 2024; Al-Arabiya, 2025)
War and conflict change alliances more than slogans, narratives, and rigid ideologies
In this context, an Al Arabiya report (April 18, 2025), based on information from” Platform Tracking Organized Crime – & Money laundering in Yemen” (PTCO Yemen), revealed the existence of a military and intelligence coordination network between the Houthis and Al Qaeda in Yemen, including direct meetings and cooperation in carrying out naval and security operations against regional targets. The report indicates that this coordination is taking place with indirect Iranian sponsorship, which reinforces suspicions about Iran’s use of proxies from Sunni jihadist organizations as part of its retaliatory strategy.
(PTCO Yemen), has revealed a secret alliance between the Houthi group and al-Qaeda in Yemen, which has evolved from apparent hostility into effective intelligence and operational coordination under the direct supervision of the Houthi leader Hassan al-Marrani, the deputy head of the group’s security and intelligence apparatus
The center asserts that Iran politically and financially supports this long-term terrorist alliance. In a recent report, titled “The Terror Alliance: The Houthis and al-Qaeda,” the center sheds light on the nature of the secret relationship between the Houthi group and al-Qaeda in Yemen, and Iran’s role in managing and financing this alliance, which is based on intelligence coordination and long-term operational support. There is also information indicating Iranian-mediated communications and alliances between the Houthis and al-Shabaab in Somalia, the powerful branch of al-Qaeda in the Horn of Africa. Motive for responding to US nuclear strikes
Following the destruction of Iran’s nuclear reactors in June 2025, Tehran faces dire strategic pressures, which may push it to seek a symbolic response through proxies. Despite ideological differences, Iran may use its al-Qaeda network as a tool to respond, especially if the strikes are considered a major provocation
The FBI warns of the danger of sleeper cells and the tactical use of suicide drones
The FBI has warned that sleeper cells with dual backgrounds (Al-Qaeda or Iranian) may receive guidance to use suicide FPV drones in attacks inside the United States, inspired by the conflicts in Ukraine, where their use has become readily available and effectively unprotected (The Guardian, 2025)
Routing probability analysis
Logistics capabilities of Iran: available and widespread.
Retaliatory motives: High after the attack on US nuclear facilities.
Ideological obstacles: Sectarian conflict between Shiites and Sunnis may limit direct cooperation.
Possible US reaction: Any large-scale attack would be fraught with a military response, reducing the risk of an actual confrontation.
Final evaluation
The likelihood of escalation of organized and direct attacks via Saif al-Adl and directed by Tehran is relatively low (<10%)
In contrast, hybrid or individual attacks using FPV technology, sleeper cells, or lone wolves remain a highly realistic possibility (≈ 30–40%), given the availability of the technology and ease of implementation
: Notes
Al-Najjar, H. (2024). Al-Qaeda is preparing to cooperate with the Houthis to carry out naval operations. Al-Arab Newspaper. ( nabd.com )
An intelligence coordination network between the Houthis and Al-Qaeda. (April 18, 2025). Al Arabiya. ( alarabiya.net )
FBI warns of Iranian infiltration and use of FPV drones. The Guardian
