Analysis by Saud Al-Sharafat / Director of Shorufat Center for Globalization and Terrorism Studies
Amman – Jordan
1. Topic of the Report
Analysis No. 517, prepared by the Italian researcher Daniele Garofalo, examines the latest weekly issue of the Al-Naba newsletter published by the Islamic State (IS), the organization’s official channel used to document its operations and disseminate its ideological and media propaganda.
The issue covers the period from 10 to 16 Rabi’ al-Thani 1447 AH (2–8 October 2025 CE).
2. Objective of the Analysis
Analyzing the Al-Naba issue allows researchers to:
- Assess the real operational threat posed by the organization by tracking the number and type of attacks.
- Understand the direction of IS propaganda, including whether it leans toward incitement, mobilization, or justification.
- Identify geographic priorities—the regions where the organization focuses its current operations.
3. Methodology of the Analysis
- Garofalo relies on direct analysis of the newsletter’s content, including photos, statements, and official announcements.
- He compiles information from IS official channels and compares it with previous issues.
- He notes that some figures reported by IS may contain propaganda exaggeration, particularly regarding casualties and damage, although the attacks themselves are generally verified in the field.
4. Recognized Limitations
- Lack of transparency and precise information within the newsletter.
- Clear propaganda bias in presenting victories and concealing losses.
- Possibility of misleading information through photos or reports from other regions or older events.
- Difficulty of independent verification of each incident, especially in conflict zones in Africa.
5. Operational Map (According to Al-Naba Issue 516)
The preceding issue (516) documented IS activity in several provinces, notably:
| Region | Nature of Announced Operations | Notes |
| Nigeria | Ambushes and assassinations of army personnel | Notable increase in West Africa Province attacks |
| Niger | Bombings and assaults on military points | Continuation of Sahel branch activity after coup |
| Syria | Limited operations in the Badia and Deir Ezzor | Reflects weakened IS presence |
| Somalia | Targeting government and local militia forces | Competition with Al-Shabab |
| Mozambique | Attacks against civilians and military | Focused on northern gas regions |
| Democratic Republic of Congo | Ambushes against army and allied forces | Continuation of Central Africa Province activity |
These provinces represent IS’s actual operational footprint in 2025, highlighting a shift of its operational focus toward Africa.
6. Content and Propaganda Analysis
Garofalo observes that the weekly Al-Naba issue:
- Maintains a consistent format: ideological introduction, statistical presentation of operations, followed by a propaganda section.
- Emphasizes organizational continuity more than actual battlefield victories.
- Features images of fighters in remote areas to reinforce the perception of “global reach.”
- Shows a decline in operations in Iraq and Syria alongside an increase in African activity.
- Uses language emphasizing “patience and long-term jihad” rather than “rapid empowerment,” signaling a shift in internal messaging.
7. Quantitative Indicators
Although exact figures are not provided, Garofalo notes:
- The total number of attacks reported during the week under study ranges between 35–45 operations.
- The majority occurred in Sub-Saharan Africa.
- The prevailing pattern remains low-cost small-scale attacks (IEDs, ambushes, assassinations).
8. Analytical Observations
- IS’s insistence on issuing the newsletter weekly indicates the persistence of a minimal central media structure.
- The newsletter aims to assert symbolic presence rather than achieve substantial operational gains.
- Content reflects a gradual shift from a centralized “territorial caliphate” to a decentralized “combat network.”
- Increased use of concepts such as “steadfastness,” “patience,” and “trial” in propaganda reflects internal confidence challenges and attempts to bolster morale.
9. Broader Implications
- The analysis supports the view that Africa has become IS’s main operational front.
- IS’s media leadership in the Middle East remains active, albeit with limited reach.
- Continuous linking of newsletter content across different branches aims to project a sense of unified jihadist front despite geographic disparities.
- Repeated newsletter releases are used for recruitment and reminders to supporters that the project “remains active.”
10. General Conclusion
Analysis of weekly newsletter No. 517 confirms that IS still effectively employs its media tools, despite its loss of direct operational influence. The newsletter has become a symbolic tool for maintaining the cohesion of its propaganda network rather than a mirror of actual battlefield strength.
