Trump administration is seeking to change its military strategy in Afghanistan, and the tasks of US forces there will probably be similar to the role it played in the liberation of Mosul after proving the success of its experiment to rely on the government forces and strengthening and supporting these forces by air and intelligence in order to be more effective on the ground
By Dr.Ahmed Al Qaisy (Director of International Center For Investments risk assessment ICRA)
US forces’ direct role will reduce in the battles and it will be concentrated within the military bases to avoid ISIS and Taliban attacks, which may be driven by Russia and Iran to fatigue America. because
- Commander of Central Command of US Army, GEN Joseph Votel: We intend to deploy additional troops in Afghanistan as part of our new strategy to achieve its mission there (5000 additional troops)
- US Department of Defense: US military used for the first time the “mother of all bombs”, the most powerful non-nuclear destructive weapon America has, on ISIS positions in Nangarhar province East Afghanistan
- US generals have confirmed that they do not currently have the necessary tools to confront Taliban
- The US army became unwelcome among Afghans, which served directly Taliban and increased its strength.
that increased Russian and Iranian involvement within Afghanistan and their engagement with Taliban are the reason behind the change in the US strategy, which may include pressures and incentives America may be pursuing toward Pakistan for pushing it to help engage Taliban in the political dialogue with the Afghan government to reach peace and marginalize the role of Russia and Iran. because:
- Pentagon response to Pakistan’s demand to halt or reduce drone operations is a strong indicator of trust between Pakistan and Trump administration.
- US sent military equipment to Pakistan used in Afghanistan.
Restoring the relationship between Pakistan and US has become urgent according to the new developments, because:
- Approaching the liberation of Mosul and Raqqa, and the possibility that ISIS elements would move to Afghanistan, require containing Pakistan-backed Taliban
- US’ Staying away from Pakistan could push it closer to China, Russia and Iran, and publicly support Taliban
It is noteworthy that we have stated in issue 53, dated 19/3/2017 that Moscow is planning to take additional steps to support national reconciliation in Afghanistan and to strengthen the capabilities of the Kabul army. And to contain Taliban for the purpose of focusing on ISIS and al-Qaeda elements on the border between Afghanistan and Russia, because Russia fears they would be utilized by the US intelligence to move them into the Russian interior, and to prevent the expansion of the American role as a result of the growing threat of Taliban and ISIS.
We have also noted in Issue 42 dated 2/1/2017 that Tehran and Moscow are working to establish cooperation with Taliban at the expense of Indian Pakistani interests. Deepening ties with Taliban by Russia and Iran fuel fears of renewed proxy war in Afghanistan that would undermine the capabilities of US-backed forces and pose the greatest threat to prolong the Afghan conflict
We pointed out in issue 24, dated 22/8/2016 that the return of al-Qaeda and the emergence of ISIS and the failure of peace talks are things forcing the US administration to modify withdrawal plans from Afghanistan, and that the current US administration has taken steps to make the Afghan war a legacy for the next US president. The continuing threat by Taliban to political stability, along with ISIS threat, make it nearly impossible for Washington to get out of Afghanistan soon, because the departure of the United States from Afghanistan would allow countries like Russia and China to enter that region
