Executive Summary
The Terrorism Index in Jordan 2025 (TIJ), issued annually by the Shorufat Center for Globalization and Terrorism Studies, provides a comprehensive methodological assessment of terrorist threats in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan. The index is based on a historical database and an extended analysis of security and regional trends. It adopts a multi-level analytical framework that includes monitoring, documentation, verification, and classification, enabling the measurement of terrorism not only in terms of incidents but also in patterns and trajectories.
The 2025 index indicates that no successful terrorist attacks were recorded within Jordan during the year, while several complex plots were detected and disrupted. This reflects the effectiveness of a preventive security approach based on proactivity, intelligence gathering, and early intervention prior to execution. The analysis also shows that Jordan’s security environment continues to be influenced by a volatile regional context, without direct impact on internal stability.
At the international level, the Global Terrorism Index (GTI 2026), issued by the Institute for Economics and Peace, ranks Jordan 44th globally, placing it among countries with low to moderate terrorism impact. This reflects the state’s ability to contain threats within limited levels despite surrounding regional challenges.
Jordan presents a unique case that goes beyond being a low-terrorism country; it demonstrates a high level of efficiency in managing security risks. Threats are largely latent rather than active, while their future trajectory is more closely linked to developments in the surrounding regional environment than to domestic dynamics.
Accordingly, Jordan can be characterized as a model of carefully managed security stability, grounded in the effectiveness of security institutions in the early containment of threats within a highly complex regional environment.
The 2025 index indicates that no successful terrorist attacks were recorded inside Jordan during the reporting period. At the same time, a number of complex security plots were detected and foiled, underscoring the effectiveness of a preventive security approach based on proactivity, intelligence capabilities, and early intervention prior to execution. The analysis further demonstrates that Jordan’s security environment continues to be influenced by a volatile regional context, albeit without direct repercussions on internal stability.
At the international level, the Global Terrorism Index (GTI 2026) ranks Jordan 44th globally, placing it within the category of countries experiencing low to moderate terrorism impact. This ranking reflects the state’s capacity to contain terrorist threats within limited levels despite persistent regional challenges.
Jordan thus represents a distinct case that extends beyond being merely a low-threat environment; it exhibits a high level of efficiency in managing security risks. Threats are predominantly latent rather than active, and their future trajectory is more closely linked to developments in the surrounding regional environment than to domestic dynamics.
Accordingly, Jordan can be characterized as a model of carefully managed security stability, grounded in the effectiveness of its security institutions in the early containment of terrorist threats within a highly complex regional environment.
It should be noted that both international and national indices, including the Global Terrorism Index and the Terrorism Index in Jordan, are labeled by their year of publication rather than the year of measurement. Accordingly, reports issued in 2026 primarily reflect data and analysis for the year ending 2025. All temporal references in this report should be understood within this methodological framework to ensure clarity and avoid ambiguity
Key Findings
- No successful terrorist attacks were recorded inside Jordan in 2025.
- Multiple terrorist plots were disrupted prior to execution, including activities related to manufacturing, recruitment, and training.
- Security cases reveal a multi-layered, networked threat structure combining domestic elements with external linkages.
- Evidence confirms the effectiveness of a preventive, intelligence-led security approach based on early detection and intervention.
- Jordan is classified among countries with low to moderate terrorism impact according to GTI 2026, ranking 44th globally.
- The regional environment remains a key factor shaping threat levels without directly affecting internal stability.
- Threat patterns are increasingly shifting toward decentralized forms relying on digital environments and indirect recruitment.
- Jordan reflects a model of “effective security containment” that balances internal stability with sustained regional pressures.
Jordan in the Global Terrorism Index 2026
According to the Global Terrorism Index 2026 issued by the Institute for Economics and Peace, Jordan ranks 44th globally in terms of terrorism impact, placing it within the low-to-moderate category. This classification reflects the state’s sustained capacity to contain terrorist threats within limited levels despite a volatile regional environment.
This ranking positions Jordan in a middle tier within the Middle East. It remains distant from the most severe terrorism hotspots, such as Iraq, Syria, and Yemen, while ranking relatively higher than the more stable Gulf states. Based on the index methodology—which measures attacks, fatalities, injuries, and trends over time—Jordan’s position does not indicate widespread terrorist activity, but rather a limited level of threat within a broader context of regional instability.
The Global Terrorism Index 2026 covers 163 countries, representing approximately 99.7% of the global population, and relies on comprehensive datasets measuring terrorism impact across four primary indicators: the number of attacks, fatalities, injuries, and hostages over an extended period.
A longitudinal analysis of Jordan’s ranking reveals a dynamic trajectory shaped by the interaction of domestic and regional factors. The country recorded relatively elevated levels during the peak of ISIS-related threats (2015–2017), followed by a marked improvement between 2018 and 2022 due to the effectiveness of preventive security measures and the dismantling of terrorist networks. A relative increase appears again by 2026; however, this shift does not reflect a measurable rise in terrorist operations داخل Jordan. Rather, it is primarily attributable to escalating regional risks associated with ongoing conflicts and tensions, as well as global transformations toward more decentralized forms of terrorism, including lone actors and digitally facilitated radicalization. The Institute for Economics and Peace acknowledges that such dynamics can elevate perceived threat levels even in otherwise stable states.
Accordingly, Jordan can be understood as a case of carefully managed security stability within a high-risk environment—a state possessing effective domestic counterterrorism capabilities while remaining structurally exposed to spillover effects from regional instability.
Analysis of Terrorist Threats
No terrorist attacks were successfully carried out in Jordan during 2025. This does not imply the absence of terrorism-related risks, but rather reflects the effectiveness of intensive intelligence operations and proactive counterterrorism measures. Security agencies have demonstrated a sustained capacity to disrupt plots at early stages and contain manifestations of violent extremism before they materialize operationally.
In this context, the General Intelligence Directorate announced on April 15, 2025, the disruption of plots threatening national security following intelligence monitoring that had been ongoing since 2021. This operation resulted in the arrest of 16 individuals involved in activities including possession of explosives, missile manufacturing, possession of firearms, development of drones, and preparations for training both داخل and outside the Kingdom. Official data and investigations indicated links between the suspects and the unlicensed Muslim Brotherhood in Jordan, as reflected in confessions and official security statements.
On April 23, 2025, the Jordanian Minister of Interior issued a decision banning all activities of the Muslim Brotherhood within the Kingdom, formally designating it as an unlawful association, ordering the seizure of its assets, and stipulating that any engagement in or promotion of its activities constitutes a punishable offense under the law. The decision was grounded in the findings of security investigations related to the disrupted plots, in addition to subsequent security and organizational assessments.
On October 8, 2025, the State Security Court issued rulings under Jordan’s Anti-Terrorism Law No. 55 of 2006 and its amendments, covering cases related to missile manufacturing, recruitment, training, and drone activities. The court imposed the most severe penalties in the missile manufacturing case, with sentences ranging from seven and a half to fifteen years of temporary hard labor for defendants convicted of producing weapons and missiles with intent for unlawful use, in addition to undermining public order and endangering societal security.
In the recruitment and training cases, six defendants received sentences of three years and four months of temporary hard labor for activities deemed to threaten public order and societal safety, including covert recruitment and training conducted in coordination with external actors, as detailed in the indictment. In the drone-related case, four defendants were acquitted due to the absence of specific criminal intent required under the legal framework, reflecting the distinction between the material and mental elements of the offense.
These cases demonstrate that certain cells operated within structured networks involving manufacturing and storage sites, external training and funding, as well as attempts to recruit individuals داخل the country and develop technical drone-related capabilities. This pattern reflects the networked and transnational nature of the threats facing Jordan, consistent with both the national legal framework for counterterrorism and evolving regional threat dynamics.
Based on the cases brought before the State Security Court under the Anti-Terrorism Law of 2006, concerning indicators have emerged that warrant serious and sustained attention. The involvement of certain individuals linked to the Muslim Brotherhood and its licensed political arm, the Islamic Action Front, in activities related to the planning or logistical support of terrorist operations cannot be treated solely as isolated incidents. Rather, they point to the need for closer scrutiny of organizational environments and internal oversight mechanisms.
Accordingly, there is a clear need to warn against the risks posed by persistent organizational gaps or mobilization-oriented discourse that could be exploited within a volatile regional context to facilitate pathways toward violent extremism and terrorism.
This necessitates strengthening legal and institutional oversight over relevant organizational and political activities, enhancing internal accountability and transparency mechanisms, and ensuring the strict enforcement of the law against any proven violations. Such measures must be implemented in a manner that balances the imperatives of national security with the preservation of a legitimate political reform process, while preventing any organizational framework from evolving into an indirect platform that could undermine internal stability, social cohesion, and national security in Jordan.
Key Trends and Patterns
The analysis of the terrorism index in 2025 highlights a continued shift toward a prevention-driven model centered on sustained and intensive intelligence operations. Security institutions, particularly the General Intelligence Directorate, have demonstrated a high degree of effectiveness in disrupting terrorist plots before they reach the execution stage.
Regional dynamics have emerged as a key factor influencing behaviors associated with extremism, particularly in relation to the Gaza conflict. However, this linkage has not translated into a direct or sustained threat to Jordan’s internal security.
Nevertheless, ongoing regional escalation and its associated political and humanitarian repercussions have heightened security sensitivity, increased operational burdens on state institutions, and necessitated a sustained state of readiness across security and military sectors. The Gaza conflict, in particular, constituted an additional pressure factor on Jordan’s security environment during 2025, both politically and socially, including its media dimension.
These developments have also contributed to a more tense public environment susceptible to mobilization and incitement narratives, including populist rhetoric that may adopt hostile or mobilizing tones toward Israel, as well as toward the United States and European countries.
At the same time, the security landscape in Jordan during 2025 reflects a noticeable decline in threats posed by traditional Salafi-jihadist organizations, particularly Al-Qaeda and ISIS, alongside the emergence of different threat patterns linked in part to organizational and political behaviors of domestic Sunni groups that previously claimed moderation and rejection of violent extremism.
In this context, security, political, and legal debates have emerged concerning activities associated with the Muslim Brotherhood and certain affiliated political formations, amid allegations related to incitement, mobilization, or links to regional dynamics. These developments have been reflected in judicial measures taken under Jordan’s Anti-Terrorism Law. However, the nature of this shift remains under continuous assessment, particularly in light of differing interpretations regarding organizational structure, decision-making centralization, and whether specific actions reflect coordinated directives or unregulated individual conduct.
It is also evident that social media platforms continue to serve as the most influential tools for propaganda, recruitment, mobilization, incitement, and financing, both for traditional terrorist organizations and for ideologically aligned networks. These platforms have become the primary environment for disseminating mobilizing narratives, shaping public opinion, recruiting individuals, and facilitating indirect coordination.
Judicial investigations in Jordan in recent years indicate that these platforms have been repeatedly utilized in recruitment, incitement, and communication linked to terrorist activities. This reflects a broader global transformation in threat modalities, where operations are no longer primarily dependent on traditional field-based organizations, but increasingly rely on open digital ecosystems.
The Terrorism Index in Jordan 2025 ultimately reflects an advanced model of counterterrorism centered on proactive prevention and early containment. The state has succeeded in preventing potential threats from materializing into actual attacks despite the complexity of the surrounding regional environment. This model underscores that Jordan’s stability is not defined by the absence of threats, but by the effectiveness of managing them, particularly in an era characterized by rapid shifts toward networked and digitally enabled forms of terrorism, and the growing role of non-state actors in shaping contemporary patterns of violence.
